TECHNICAL REPORTS
Below is a list of our technical reports.
MUCM NO.  TECHNICAL REPORT SERIES  MILESTONE  

07/01 
Gosling, J. P. and O'Hagan, A. (2007). Understanding the uncertainty in the biospheric carbon flux for England and Wales. Research Report No. 567/06, Department of Probability and Statistics, The University of Sheffield. 

07/02 
Rougier, J.C., (2007). Lightweight emulators for complex multivariate functions. MUCM Technical Report 07/02, University of Durham 

07/03 
Gosling, J.P. (2006) Differences between estimates of expected computer code output with GEMSA. Technical Report. Department of Probability and Statistics, The University of Sheffield. 

07/04 
J.C. Rougier, D.M.H. Sexton, J.M. Murphy, and D. Stainforth (2009), Emulating the sensitivity of the HadSM3 climate model using ensembles from different but related experiments. Journal of Climate, 22(13), 35403557. DOI:10.1175/2008JCLI2533.1 

07/05 
Rougier, J. (2007). A Simple Conjugate Emulator: Theory and Programming. (with resulting picture) MUCM Technical Report 07/05. [Submitted to Technometrics Special Volume on the SAMSI CompMod program] 

07/06 
Boukouvalas, A., Maniyar, D.M. and Cornford, D. (2007). Dimensionality Reduction in Complex Models. Technical Report No. NCRG/2007/001. Neural Computing Research Group, Aston University 

07/07 
Bernstein, Y., MaruriAguilar, H, Onn, S., Riccomagno, E and Wynn, H.P.. Minimal average degree aberration and the state polytope for experimental designs. Annals of the Institute of Statistical Mathematics (in press). arXiv:0808.3055 

07/09 
Bernstein, Yael; Lee, Jon; MaruriAguilar, Hugo; Onn, Shmuel; Riccomagno, Eva; Weismantel, Robert; Wynn, Henry Nonlinear matroid optimization and experimental design. SIAM J. Discrete Math. 22 (2008), 901—919 

07/10 
MaruriAguilar, H. and Wynn, H.P. Generalised design: interpolation and statistical modelling over varieties. In: Algebraic and Geometric Methods in Statistics. Cambridge University Press. Eds: Paolo Gibilisco, Eva Riccomagno, Maria Piera Rogantin, and Henry P. Wynn (2009). 

07/11 
Maniyar, D.M., Cornford, D and Boukouvalas A. (2007). Dimensionality reduction in the emulator setting. NCRG/2007/005, Neural Computing Research Group, Aston University. 
1.2.2 

07/12 
J.C. Rougier (2008), Efficient emulators for multivariate deterministic functions, Journal of Computational and Graphical Statistics, 17(4), 827843. doi:10.1198/106186008X384032. 

07/13 
Wynn, H. (2007). Bayesian informationbased learning and Majorization. MUCM Technical report 07/13, LSE. 

08/01 
Bates, Ron A.; MaruriAguilar, Hugo; Wynn, Henry P. Smooth supersaturated models eprint arXiv:0809.4654 

08/02 
Bastos, L. S. and O'Hagan, A. (2008). Diagnostics for Gaussian process emulators. Research Report No. 574/07, Department of Probability and Statistics, University of Sheffield. Technometrics 51, 425438 

08/03 
Cripps, E., O'Hagan, A., Quaife, T. and Anderson, C. W. (2008). Modelling uncertainty in satellite derived land cover maps. Research Report No. 573/07, Department of Probability and Statistics, University of Sheffield. Submitted to Bayesian Analysis. (January 2008) 

08/04 
Conti, S., Gosling, J.P., Oakley, J.E. and O'Hagan, A. (2009) Gaussian process emulation of dynamic computer codes. Research Report No. 571/07, Department of Probability and Statistics, University of Sheffield. MUCM Technical Report 08/04. Biometrika, 96, 66376 

08/05 
Gosling, J. P. (2008). On the elicitation of continuous, symmetric, unimodal distributions. Research Report No. 577/08. Department of Probability and Statistics, The University of Sheffield. MUCM Technical Report 08/05, University of Sheffield 

08/06 
Boukouvalas, A (2008), Gaussian process emulation of stochastic models; developments and application to rabies modelling, MUCM Technical Report 08/06, Neural Computing Research Group, Aston University 
1.1.3 

08/07 
Goldstein, M., House, L., & Rougier, J. (2008) Assessing Model Discrepancy Using a MultiModel Ensemble. MUCM Technical report 08/07, Durham University & University of Bristol. 
2.1.2 

08/08 
Boukouvalas, A. and Cornford, D. (2008) Dimension Reduction for Multivariate Emulation. MUCM Technical Report 08/08, Neural Computing Research Group, Aston University. 
1.1.4 

08/09 
Cumming, C. and Goldstein, M. (2008) Bayes Linear Uncertainty Analysis for Oil Reservoirs Based on Multiscale Computer Experiments. MUCM Technical report 08/09, Durham University, Handbook of Applied Bayesian Analysis, eds. A. O'Hagan, M.West 
1.3.6 

08/10 
Youssef, N. (2008) Towards ASCM Adaptive Sampler For Complex Models MUCM Technical report 08/10, London School Of Economics 
3.1.5 

08/11 
MaruriAguilar, H. and Wynn, H. (2008) Generalised Design. MUCM Technical report 08/11, London School Of Economics 

08/12 
Gosling, J.P., MaruriAguilar, H., Bastos, L., Boukouvalas, A., Conford, D., Van Effelterre, T. and Wynn, H. (2009) Speedingup and extending the sensitivity analysis of an epidemiological model. MUCM Case Study 1, MUCM Technical Report 08/12, University of Sheffield, published online as part of the MUCM toolkit. 

09/01 
Wilkinson, R. D. (2009). Bayesian Calibration of Expensive Multivariate Computer Experiments. MUCM Technical Report 09/01, book chapter for Computational Methods for LargeScale Inverse Problems and Quantification of Uncertainty, pubs John Wiley and Sons 2. To appear in ``Large scale inverse problems and quantification of Uncertainty'', Springer, Editors: B. van Bloemen Waanders and B. Mallick. 

09/02 
Wilkinson, R. D. (2009). Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) gives exact results under the assumption of model error. Submitted to Biometrika journal. 

09/03 
R.D. Wilkinson and S. Tavare Estimating the primate divergence time using conditioned birthanddeath processes. To appear in Theoretical Population Biology, 2009, doi:10.1016/j.tpb.2009.02.003 . 

09/04 
Vernon, I. R, and Goldstein, M. (2009). Bayes Linear Analysis of imprecision in Computer Models, with Application to Understanding Galaxy Formation. MUCM Technical Report 09/04, ISIPTA '09, (with I. Vernon) 
2.1.6 

09/05 
Andrianakis, Y. & Challenor, P. (2009). Parameter estimation and prediction using Gaussian Processes. MUCM Technical report 09/05 
3.2.3 

09/06 
Boukouvalas, A., Cornford, D., Stehlk, M. (2009) Approximately Optimal Experimental Design for Heteroscedastic Gaussian Process Models. MUCM Technical report 09/06 
1.1.6 

09/07 
Pepelyshev, A., Oakley, J. (2009) On the choice of correlation function and crossvalidation for Gaussian processes. MUCM Technical report 09/07 
3.3c.2 

09/08 
Bates, R.A., MaruriAguilar, H., Riccomagno, E., Schwabe, R. & Wynn, H. P. (2009) Selfavoiding generating sequences for Fourier lattice designs MUCM Technical report 09/08, London School Of Economics 
3.1.11 

10/01 
Bower, R.G., Vernon, I., Goldstein, M., Benson, A.J., Baugh, C.M., Cole, S., Frenk, C.S. & Lacey, C.G. (2009) The Parameter Space of Galaxy Formation MUCM Technical report 10/01 Resubmitted to MNRAS after responding to referee's comments 
2.1.7 

10/02 
House, L., Goldstein, M. & Vernon, I.R. (2009) Second Order Exchangeable Computer Models, MUCM Technical report 10/02, Submitted to The Royal Statistics Society, Series B 
2.1.3 

10/03 
Vernon, I., Goldstein, M. &Bower, R.G. (2009) Galaxy Formation: a Bayesian Uncertainty Analysis. MUCM Technical report 10/03 
2.1.8 

10/04 
Goldstein, M., Seheult, A. & Vernon, I. (2010) Assessing Model Adequacy . MUCM Technical report 10/04 
2.1.10 

10/05 
Stephenson, G. & Challoner, P. (2010) Adjoints without Adjoint: emulating model derivatives. MUCM Technical report 10/05 
3.2b.6 

10/06 
Fricker, T., Oakley, J. & Urban, N.M. (2010) Multivariate Emulators with Nonseparable Covariance Structures. MUCM Technical report 10/06 
2.3.6 

10/07 
A. Pepelyshev (2010) The role of the nugget term in the Gaussian process method. accepted, MODA 9Advances in modeloriented design and analysis, Contrib. Statist. 
3.3c.2 

10/08 
Fricker, T.E., Oakley, J.E., Sims, N.D. & Worden, K. (2010) Probabilistic uncertainty analysis of an FRF of a structure using a Gaussian process emulator, MUCM Technical report 10/08 
2.3.8 

10/09 
Fricker, T.E. & Oakley, J.E., (2010) Testing for the independence of computer model outputs, MUCM Technical report 10/09 
2.3.7 

10/10 
Vernon, I. & Goldstein, M. (2010) A Bayes Linear Approach to Systems Biology, MUCM Technical Report 10/10 
2.1.14 

10/11 
Seheult, A. (2010) Likelihood Methods for Estimating Model Discrepancy, MUCM Technical Report 10/11 
2.1.9 

11/01 
O'Hagan, A. (2011) Uncertainty Analysis : the variance of the varianace, MUCM Technical Report 11/01 

11/02 
Wilkinson, R.D., Vrettas, M., Cornford, D. & Oakley, J.E. (2011) Quantifying simulator discrepancy in discretetime dynamical simulators, MUCM Technical Report 11/02 

11/03 


11/04  Barillec, R., Ingram, B., Cornford, D. & Csatóc, L. (2011) Projected Sequential Gaussian Processes: A C++ tool for interpolation of large data sets with heterogeneous noise, MUCM Technical Report 11/04  