MANAGING UNCERTAINTY IN COMPLEX MODELS

 

 

MCSG

MUCM

 

 

News

Important news that is relevant to the wider MUCM Community and MUCM website, that is perhaps on-going or more relevant than news posted to the UCM mailing list, will be posted on this page. If you have any such news, please inform Jeremy Oakley to ensure your news is made available through this page.

 

For other news items and general communications within the MUCM Community, please see our News Digest page

 

 

LATEST NEWS

 

Uncertainty in Computer Models 2014 July 28-30, 2014 University of Sheffield, UK

 

UCM2014The UCM2014 conference was held at the University of Sheffield, UK, during 28th-30th July 2014, on uncertainty in complex computer models, and was open to everyone interested in all aspects of computer model uncertainty, both theoretical and practical. The conference focused on statistical methods to quantify and analyse the uncertainties in the predictions of computer models. Themes included propagation of parameter uncertainty and sensitivity analysis; model structure uncertainty; Gaussian process emulators for computationally expensive models; inverse problems, model calibration and history matching.

 

This was the third conference to be organised as a result of the Managing Uncertainty in Complex Models (MUCM) project, was organised through the MUCM Community Steering Group, and follows on from UCM2010 and UCM2012.

 

There WILL be an UCM 2016 so watch this space!

 

 

 

 

 

 

"Virtual Library of Simulation Experiments: Test Functions and Datasets"

 

Derek Bingham, Associate Professor from Simon Fraser University, Canada, and member of the MUCM Community Steering Group, is currently working on a project with a summer student (Ms. Sonja Surjanovic) to create the "Virtual Library of Simulation Experiments: Test Functions and Datasets". The idea of the website is to have a suite of test functions and data-sets that can be used to evaluate new approaches to design and analysis of experiments involving computer models.

 

The Virtual Library is starting to take shape, but is indeed still a work in progress. The website can be found here: http://www.sfu.ca/~ssurjano/index.html or by clicking on the screen print below.

 

 

Derek would like some help and input from the MUCM Community:

 

Would anyone be willing to share the simulation runs from their computer models with the scientific community (in the case of model calibration simulations and field data-sets)?  By sharing the simulation runs, new approaches can be tested out in more than one setting.  If you can make your simulation output available, please email Derek.


Are there any test functions that anyone can suggest for inclusion that's not already included?


Does anyone have any thoughts on how this website might be improved? Derek and Sonja would be happy to hear MUCM Community Members' suggestions and make appropriate modifications.


Derek and Sonja are hoping that this is a resource that the MUCM community will find useful.  Eventually, the aim is to have the Virtual Library hosted on the MUCM website.