MANAGING UNCERTAINTY IN COMPLEX MODELS

 

 

MCSG

MUCM

 

 

Related Projects

Please see below for research projects related to MUCM:

 

 

Project Title

Steering Group Contact

Tipping Points

Michael Goldstein

PURE

Michael Goldstein

OPUS

Alberto Pasanisi

COSTA BRAVA

Alberto Pasanisi

EES12

Alberto Pasanisi

EQUIP

Omar Ghattas

IFIP Working Group 2.5

Ron Bates

   

 

 

Tipping Points

The Tipping Points project, funded by The Leverhulme Trust, provides the Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience (IHRR) with an opportunity to provide a fresh and original exploration of a term increasingly used to describe the world in which we live. The relevance of understanding how tipping points occur could not come at a better time, as countries recover from near or complete financial collapse and as ecological devastation due to climate change continues to grow in scale. If there are examples of systems that tip, then it will require a fundamentally different approach to the way in which we live.

 

 

PURE Research Programme

A major contribution to the PURE programme comes from two research consortia, each funded for four years. Their overarching objectives are:

  • To improve the handling of uncertainty in relation to natural hazards, by both scientists and stakeholders;

  • To improve communication between the science and stakeholder communities.

Achieving these objectives will involve the dissemination and uptake of state-of-the-art methodology across all natural hazard areas, adapted as necessary to meet the demands of specific situations. It will create consistency and greater scientific rigour regarding the treatment of uncertainty in natural hazard risk assessment. This in turn will enhance the capacity, knowledge and skills of stakeholders from private and public sectors, and improve societal security through better and more consistently informed decision-making under uncertainty.

 

OPUS

The OPUS Project (Open source Platform for Uncertainty treatment in Simulation), funded by French National Research Agency, ended in 2011. The aim of the project is to create and sustain an activity around Generic Uncertainty Treatments by building and maintaining a reference tool for uncertainty treatment, as well as providing a community-friendly environment and extensive user contribution opportunities. OPUS gathers 10 industrial and research partners and receives governmental funding via Agence Nationale pour la Recherche.

 

COSTA BRAVA

The COSTA BRAVA Project (Complex spatio-temporal dynamics analysis by model reduction and sensitivity analysis) is funded by French National Research Agency.The main goal of the project is to design new hybrid approaches that originally combine stochastic and deterministic approaches. It has been recognized that such tools will help attaining a global uncertainty analysis for large-scale models. Another challenge in this project is to implement modern software tools to analyze computer experiments featuring a complex spatio-temporal evolution. Collaborations enabled by this project involve stochastic and deterministic tools, as well as skills in applied mathematics and scientific computing. We aim at using those complementaries to develop high-level theoretical deterministic, stochastic, and hybrid tools, and to apply these tools to specific test cases. Researchers involved in this ambitious project come from both academic (universities, CNRS, INRIA) and industrial (CEA, IFP Energies nouvelles) laboratories.

 

EES12

The EES12 Project (European Exascale Software Initiative) is a large EU project on exascale computing with specific sub-tasks on V&V and Uncertainty Quantification. The objective of the project, co-funded by the European Commission is to build a european vision and roadmap to address the challenges of the new generation of massively parallel systems composed of millions of heterogeneous cores which will provide multi-Petaflop performances in the next few years and Exaflop performances in 2020.

 

EQUIP

EQUIP is a 2.6M EPSRC Programme Grant which will tackle a number of key challenges arising in the solution of statistical inverse problems, guided by applications arising in subsurface geophysics.

The work brings together a team of mathematical scientists, with expertise in applied mathematics, computer science and statistics, together with engineering applications, to develop new methods for solving inverse problems, including the quantification of uncertainty. The work will be driven by applications in the determination of subsurface properties, but will have application to a range of problems in the biological, physical and social sciences.

 

 

IFIP WG2.5

 

 

 

 

If you are the grant holder of any relevant projects, or know of any that may be of interest to the Community, please contact Jeremy Oakley and these will be posted on this page.