MANAGING UNCERTAINTY IN COMPLEX MODELS

 

 

MCSG

MUCM

 

 

MUCM Community Steering Group

The MUCM Community Steering Group (MCSG) consists of a voluntary group of experienced and knowledgeable researchers and academics from a wide international base from both institutions, government bodies and organisations who have been invited by us to join the Steering Group and let the new MUCM Community take things forward in its own directions and at its own pace.

 

The Steering Group will be taking forward the MUCM Community and further developments will follow after due deliberation by the Steering Group.

 

Comments and suggestions on the MUCM Community are welcomed from everyone via the UCM Mailing list

 

 

Responsibilities of the provisional Steering Group

The responsibilities of the provisional Steering Group are of two kinds.

 

  • Continuing and expanding MUCM Community activities, including

    • overseeing the ongoing development of internet-based services, including the website, mailing list and toolkit;

    • proposing and helping to organise meetings, including the biennial UCM conferences and occasional meetings giving opportunities for community members to meet, to present ongoing research or applications, and to learn about related developments in other fields;

    • formulating ideas for new services and activities;

    • identifying and pursuing potential sources of funding for community services and activities;

    • promoting the importance of quantifying and understanding uncertainty in the outputs of complex models to scientists and those who use and depend on models across the many fields where such models are used; and

    • promoting the MUCM Community and encouraging other researchers, modellers and model users to engage with it.

  • Developing a constitution and procedures, including

    • determining the future composition, terms of appointment and responsibilities of the Steering Group and any other committees;

    • determining election procedures; and

    • consulting with the community over these.

 

Both roles are important. It is obviously important to develop a proper constitution and procedures under which the community can move forward, but it is equally important to maintain and expand awareness, membership and existing activities so that the momentum is not lost.

 

 

Composition of the provisional Steering Group

The MUCM project team is strongly committed to this new community. Inevitably, this enthusiasm means that the Steering Group contains many of MUCM's previous project team. Furthermore, however wide and inclusive our selection of other invitees might be they are people known to us.

 

But this is just the beginning, just the provisional Steering Group. We hope and expect that, like a good recurrent Markov chain, over time the Community will become less dependent on its genesis in the MUCM project and instead will reach an equilibrium that represents the wider community of researchers, modellers and model users.

 

Tony O'Hagan has agreed to serve as Chair of the provisional MUCM Steering Group in the first instance. From our initial invitations, we have the following members committed to taking the MUCM Community forward and forming the MCSG (MUCM Community Steering Group):

 

Ron Bates

Rolls Royce

Susie Bayarri

University of Valencia, Spain

William Becker

EU JRC, Italy

Jim Berger

Duke University, USA

Derek Bingham

Simon Fraser University, Canada

Alexis Boukouvalas

Aston University, UK

Peter Challenor

University of Exeter, UK

Dan Cornford

IGI Ltd, UK

Jonathan Cumming

Durham University, UK

Omar Ghattas

The University of Texas at Austin, USA

David Ginsbourger

University of Bern, Switzerland

Michael Goldstein

Durham University, UK

Jo Green

University of Sheffield, UK (MCSG Manager)

Marc Kennedy

The Food & Environment Research Agency, UK

Jeremy Oakley

University of Sheffield, UK

Tony O’Hagan

University of Sheffield, UK

Robert Parish

Bayes Tech Ltd, UK

Alberto Pasanisi

EDF R&D, France

Grant Reinman

Pratt & Whitney, USA

Tom Santner

The Ohio State University, USA

Ian Vernon

Durham University, UK

Richard White

London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, UK

Darren Wilkinson

Newcastle University, UK

Henry Wynn

London School of Economics & Politics, UK

Noha Youssef

The American University in Cairo, Egypt

 

 

As explained in the responsibilities section above, the provisional Steering Group will be charged with ensuring the transition to a democratically elected body, operating under a written constitution. The MUCM team are investing a lot of energy in this initiative and want it to succeed. We hope that those who accept our invitation will share our enthusiasm.

 

For further information on the MUCM Community Steering Group, please email Jeremy Oakely