In almost every field of science and technology, models are widely used to represent and predict the behaviour of complex real-world systems. These models, built in mathematics and implemented in computer programs, try to simulate reality using all the best current scientific knowledge. We call such models "computer models." As computer models become more pervasive, and more important for making policy or decisions, there is a growing demand to know how accurate their predictions are. "Uncertainty in Computer Models 2012" will bring together international researchers who are trying to address this question and related problems.

The conference focuses on statistical methods to quantify and analyse the uncertainties in the predictions of computer models. Uncertainty in the model outputs as predictions of reality is induced partly by uncertainty concerning the appropriate values to use for the inputs or parameters in the model, and partly by the fact that all such models are inherently imperfect. We call the first of the sources of uncertainty "parameter uncertainty" and the second "model discrepancy." Model discrepancy arises from incompleteness and imperfections in the science, as well as from inaccuracies in the computer implementation.

Uncertainty in Computer Models 2012 will address all aspects of model uncertainty, both theoretical and practical.

This conference is an initiative of the MUCM (Managing Uncertainty in Complex Models - http://mucm.ac.uk) project. Research in MUCM is concerned with all aspects of uncertainty in computer models, including the propagation of parameter uncertainty, model discrepancy, validation, sensitivity analysis and the calibration of models.

Uncertainty in computer models is an emerging and highly topical field of statistical research, with many challenges and an enormous range of applications.

 

Uncertainty in Computer Models 2012

 

The UCM 2012 Conference will take place across 3 days, starting mid-morning on Monday 2nd July 2012 and finishing in the afternoon of Wednesday 4th July 2012.

On the first evening there will be an informal dinner, followed by a drinks reception and poster session. There will be a formal conference dinner on the second evening.

A number of invited speakers will give talks as well as numerous selected speakers throughout the 3 days.

Abstracts of talks can be accessed through this website in due course.

Organisers of the UCM 2012 Conference are Jo Green (University of Sheffield), Jeremy Oakley (University of Sheffield) and members of the Scientific Programme Committee.

A warm welcome in Sheffield in July 2012 is promised to all participants!