Any upcoming events can be found via the MUCM Community webpages here.







Uncertainty in Computer Models 2012 Conference

MUCM organised the UCM 2012 conference which took place in Sheffield from 2nd - 4th July 2012.

Further details can be found on the UCM Conference website.




The Role of Emulation in Managing Uncertainty in Complex Geophysical Models, Short Course

European Geosciences Union, General Assembly 2011, Vienna , Austria

This short course provided an introduction to the concept of emulation, which is the creation of a surrogate statistical model to act in place of the geophysical simulator, and describe the state of the art in creating emulators, for example how to create emulators for multi-output simulators, as well as the limitations of the existing technology.

Further information on this workshop, including links to presentations, can be found at the Workshops page.



UCM 2010

Uncertainty in Computer Models 2010 Conference

MUCM organised the UCM 2010 conference which took place in Sheffield from 12-14th July 2010. Further details can be found at the UCM 2010 website:




This workshop took place on Friday 10th July 2009 at NOCS, Southampton.

Further information on this workshop, including links to presentations, can be found at the Workshops page.




2nd & 3rd July 2008, Durham University

MUCM is holding two one-day workshops in July for those who build, use or rely on science-based models for prediction of complex real-world processes. These workshops are focussed on applications in the biological and health sciences, although the MUCM methods are applicable much more generally.

The workshops will be held on the 2nd and 3rd July, 2008, in Durham in association with the Institute of Advanced Study. Attendance is free at these workshops and lunch will be provided. Because of the limited numbers that we can accommodate, particularly for the hands-on workshop, those wishing to come are advised to register as early as possible. See the link at the bottom of this page.

    Dissemination Workshop

  • The first workshop, on July 2nd, will explain the power of MUCM methods to quantify and analyse the uncertainties in the outputs of complex models. Tony O'Hagan will open the workshop with an overview of the MUCM methods for uncertainty analysis, sensitivity analysis, calibration and validation of models. This will be followed by a series of short case studies exemplifying their use in a range of applications. In accordance with the focus on biological and health sciences, three planned case studies will be in cellular reactions, rotavirus epidemiology and systems biology. However, no specialist knowledge will be assumed for the case studies, and this workshop is open to anyone interested in the management and implications of uncertainty in model outputs. The workshop will continue with a review by Michael Goldstein of ongoing research in the field and the future potential of these methods. There will be ample opportunity for discussion and interaction throughout the workshop.
  • The dissemination workshop is pitched at a conceptual level, for those whose primary interest is to understand what the MUCM methods can do. This includes researchers, research leaders, policy- and decision-makers, research funders and those concerned with the communication of model-based science to policy-makers or the general public. It will also be relevant (but not necessary) for those attending the hands-on workshop.
  • Places at the dissemination Workshop will be limited to 60.

    Hands-on Workshop

  • The second workshop will be on 3rd July, and will provide a more detailed and practical introduction to some of the most basic MUCM methods. Practical sessions will use the GEM-SA and SHELF software packages (Both packages are free, and pre-workshop notes including instructions on downloading them will be sent to delegates in June.) Delegates will be expected to bring their own laptop PCs.
  • The hands-on workshop is intended for people who expect to make direct use of the tools for sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, and is suitable for postdocs as well as more senior researchers.
  • Places at the hands-on workshop will be limited to 25.
  • Experience with previous workshops for the environmental and engineering sciences suggests that early registration is essential, and this workshop will be strictly for researchers in the biological and health sciences.

Further information on this workshop, including links to presentations, can be found at the Workshops page.



SAMSI 2006-07 Program on Development, Assessment and Utilization of Complex Computer Models

Members of the Project Team attended the Joint SAMSI/MUCM CompMod Mid-Programme Workshop in April 2007.

  • For those new to MUCM, SAMSI ( is the Statistical and Applied Mathematical Sciences Institute in North Carolina, USA. It is running a year-long programme on evaluation and development of computer models, the CompMod programme, which is relevant to MUCM. At SAMSI they will try over this year to generate new research and build new collaborations in that field. There are several postdocs at SAMSI who work on topics that interest them, and there are academics with relevant research interests who are resident for periods of from a week or so to the whole year. In the CompMod programme they have five sub-programmes, one of which is Methodology. The committee for Methodology includes Tony O'Hagan, Michael Goldstein and Henry Wynn. The other sub-programmes concentrate on different application areas in which models are used.
  • For further information on the CompMod Methodology sub-programme working group, see